PESERA-DESMICE: Land management evaluation model

Table of Contents

1. Authors
2. Summary
3. Acronyms
4. Introduction
5. Coarse-scale model description
   1. The PESERA model: summary
   2. Alternative approaches to assessing soil erosion
   3. Process representation in PESERA
   4. Extensions of PESERA
   5. Adapting PESERA
   6. Assessment at catchment scales
6. Cost-effectiveness modelling
   1. Step 1
   2. Step 2
   3. Step 3
   4. Step 4
   5. Step 5
   6. Step 6
   7. Step 7
   8. Step 8
   9. Step 9
   10. Step 10
   11. Step 11
   12. Step 12
7. Agent-Based modelling in Spain
   1. Phase 1
   2. Phase 2
   3. Phase 3
   4. Phase 4
   5. Phase 5
   6. Phase 6
8. Input-Output modelling in Spain
   1. Model construction
   2. Scenario analyses
9. References

Summary

The aim of this report is to "develop a model for the main bio-physical and socio-economic processes interacting within an agro-ecosystem, building on existing experience in combination with results generated within WBs 1-4". The inter-linked models described in this report are designed to evaluate the likely biophysical and socio-economic effects of applying remediation strategies selected by stakeholders in WB3 at a regional scale, by scaling up results from field trials and secondary data. These models will be applied in all study areas for which there is sufficient data. Additional socio-economic models have been developed for application in a single study site to further explore factors influencing the adoption of remediation strategies by land managers and the wider effects of adoption on the regional economy.

The report starts by introducing the modeling approaches that are used and explains how these move beyond the state-of-the-art. Next, it shows how the biophysical model proposed for the DESIRE project builds on and extends the PESERA model. It also describes a database that is used to assess the effects of soil and water conservation measures on runoff, soil loss and sediment yield at catchment scales. In order to determine which remediation strategies should be implemented where to achieve desertification policy targets at least cost, and to make an investment analysis of these strategies for both land users and societies, PESERA outputs are linked to the implementation costs of remediation strategies in each study area to produce a cross-site cost-effectiveness analysis and financial cost-benefit analysis - the latter also extended with some selected wider economic effects. Finally, the report describes models that have been developed for application in Spain to investigate the regional economic effects of adopting different remediation strategies (using regional economic modeling), and determine what factors influence land managers to adopt different remediation strategies and change land use under different future scenarios (using Agent-Based Modeling).

The proposed modeling approach contains a number of important novelties. For example, the approach overcomes a number of challenges to incorporate inputs from multiple stakeholders in very different contexts into the modeling process, in order to enhance both the realism and relevance of outputs for policy and practice. A number of modelling approaches are being applied to the mitigation of land degradation for the first time to provide novel insights. For example, site-selection modelling is being applied to land degradation mitigation for the first time to enable landscape-scale assessments of the most economically optimal way to attain of environmental targets. There have been few attempts to use Cost-Benefit Analysis to investigate the spatial variability of the profitability of SWC measures, which may have important implications for the adoption of measures across landscapes and their consequent environmental effects. For the first time, regional (input-output) economic models are also being used to consider the effects of land degradation mitigation on the regional economy. By linking (Agent-Based) models of human behaviour to models that describe the wider regional economic and biophysical implications of people's actions, it may be possible to better understand how people are likely to respond to environmental change, and how their responses in turn are likely to influence their environment. Such models may offer us the opportunity to explore how land managers might react to different future policy options and provide ways to make refinements to policy design that can more effectively achieve environmental sustainability goals. The fact that much of this is being done for multiple study areas based on data gathered by a collective effort between researchers and local stakeholders makes the approach truly unique. Cross-site scaling-up of the model will for the first time be able to provide estimates of the global impact of land degradation mitigation, built on local realities.