PESERA-DESMICE: Land management evaluation model

Table of Contents

1. Authors
2. Summary
3. Acronyms
4. Introduction
5. Coarse-scale model description
   1. The PESERA model: summary
   2. Alternative approaches to assessing soil erosion
   3. Process representation in PESERA
   4. Extensions of PESERA
   5. Adapting PESERA
   6. Assessment at catchment scales
6. Cost-effectiveness modelling
   1. Step 1
   2. Step 2
   3. Step 3
   4. Step 4
   5. Step 5
   6. Step 6
   7. Step 7
   8. Step 8
   9. Step 9
   10. Step 10
   11. Step 11
   12. Step 12
7. Agent-Based modelling in Spain
   1. Phase 1
   2. Phase 2
   3. Phase 3
   4. Phase 4
   5. Phase 5
   6. Phase 6
8. Input-Output modelling in Spain
   1. Model construction
   2. Scenario analyses
9. References

Step 8

Step 8 (optional): Prediction of adoption scenarios

The assumed adoption raster map of step 6 will be fed into PESERA again for a cost-benefit analysis including selected wider economic effects. Adoption in step 6 is however crudely defined by assuming that: 1) farmers will adopt the most profitable technology regardless of any constraints/reservations they might have; and 2) they will do so unanimously and at once. This optional step allows for the delineation of the temporal and spatial trends of adoption. The simplest form would be to estimate a likelihood of adoption (e.g. as a function of IRR of the investment), and apply this as a random process of allotting technologies to grid cells - potentially including a time line (based on evidence from the literature) to reach the estimated level of adoption. More elaborate adoption scenarios could include social factors such as how innovations spread through networks. This is also the step in which the effect of policies (or approaches - data from WOCAT Approach Questionnaire) on adoption can be assessed (step 12), i.e. how changes in policies/approaches will affect adoption patterns. Since this step is additional to the work that was originally proposed, it will only be done if time and resources permit. If it is not possible to perform this step for additional study sites, we will only conduct this step in the Spanish site, using an Agent-Based Modelling approach. Adoption of mitigation measures as defined in step 7 is solely based on profit maximization. Land users may in reality have more varied reasons to adopt or not to adopt SWC measures. For the Spanish case study site, we will do a detailed study of spatially explicit adoption. In this case study, a questionnaire will yield the necessary data for developing an agent-based model integrated with GIS (see section 4.1). The results of the ABM model can be entered here in lieu of the raster map showing the spatial configuration of technologies produced by step 7.

Data sources: ABM model output (section 4.1) or rules based on economic indicators

Intermediate product: (revised) map with spatially explicit adoption of technologies