PESERA-DESMICE: Land management evaluation model

Table of Contents

1. Authors
2. Summary
3. Acronyms
4. Introduction
5. Coarse-scale model description
   1. The PESERA model: summary
   2. Alternative approaches to assessing soil erosion
   3. Process representation in PESERA
   4. Extensions of PESERA
   5. Adapting PESERA
   6. Assessment at catchment scales
6. Cost-effectiveness modelling
   1. Step 1
   2. Step 2
   3. Step 3
   4. Step 4
   5. Step 5
   6. Step 6
   7. Step 7
   8. Step 8
   9. Step 9
   10. Step 10
   11. Step 11
   12. Step 12
7. Agent-Based modelling in Spain
   1. Phase 1
   2. Phase 2
   3. Phase 3
   4. Phase 4
   5. Phase 5
   6. Phase 6
8. Input-Output modelling in Spain
   1. Model construction
   2. Scenario analyses
9. References

Phase 5

Phase 5: Modelling agents' future response

This phase of the analysis explores how land managers/farmers in the dryland agro-ecosystem being studied will respond to future changes and how their future responses would feed back into the system. The implications of: 1) a future climate change scenario (much drier and hotter climate with very little rainfall); 2) a water resource pricing/regulation scenario; and 3) a policy change scenario (reduction in subsidy and/or uncertainty regarding the long term security of agro-environmental schemes) are examined (see section 4.1.3 for details of how these were selected). Specifically, this part of the study investigates the extent to which particular land managers/farmers, being conditioned by their respective socioeconomic characteristics and the characteristics of the lands they manage, will: a) maintain status quo (doing what they are doing now); b) modify what they are doing now (i.e. reducing or otherwise increasing land areas allocated for particular land uses and/or substituting one land use type with another); c) seize newly introduced land use opportunities (e.g. solar panel field and ecological agriculture); d) do something completely new to the system; or e) abandon the land. A specific section to explore the land managers/farmers' future responses is included in the semi structured questionnaire described in section 4.1.3.